Refighting the Battle of Verdun in Ukraine
A Note
The war on Ukraine’s eastern front is relentless. It is now eleven years in length and focused on a combination of drone warfare, Russian missile attacks, and attrition. There is no possibility of it ending soon because the demands made by Russian president Vladimir Putin give Ukraine no option but to continue fighting.
The battles are reminiscent of the First World War rather than the Second. The Russian army attacks frequently in the Donetsk region and is invariably repulsed. It attacks again, and again. Each time the body count is higher, but ultimately it gains a few kilometres since the Ukrainians lack the numbers and missiles to maintain their positions.
If such warfare continues, then conceivably the Russian army could occupy all of Ukraine in about 30 years. But it would need to raise birth rates to the level of Somalia or Chad to meet the demand for new recruits. Instead Russia’s birthrate today is lower than at any time since the early 19th century.
In the war, Russian losses are catastrophically high. Its army, compared to that of Ukraine, is relatively young. Putin recently ordered a new conscription that should provide about 160,000 more troops aged between 18 and 27 years. In addition, for the past few years, Russia has used high security prisoners, whose jail terms will be remitted should they fight and remain alive for six months, and foreigners. The latter comprise anyone over the age of 18 willing to join the Russian army. Ukraine has captured both North Koreans and Chinese fighting on the Russian side in recent weeks.
This kind of warfare cannot really be termed a success because the death toll is too high. By one estimate, the losses on the Russian side are around 1 million to date. Often the Ukrainians holding a position face the sight of countless dead bodies in front of them. They cannot do anything about the decomposing corpses because they could be picked off by snipers. They eventually retreat a short distance and the same process repeats itself.
The Special Military Operation is partly a psychological war. The Russian leadership tries to convince the Ukrainian army officers (and Zelensky) that they cannot win. There is no way out. Soon, the bodies of Ukrainian troops—often forcibly conscripted from various parts of Ukraine and sometimes as old as 59—will lie alongside those of the Russian army.
Trump and others remark on the horrors of this war and talk about peace. But what peace? How can there be peace when there are no defining terms of what would satisfy Russia? Trump and his minions, who clearly know nothing about the histories of either Russia or Ukraine, do not see this problem. Russia wishes to destroy the Ukrainian state and they are abetting Putin and his Security Council.
If Ukraine concedes territory—and Putin demands Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia as a minimum—then more demands will follow, if not immediately, then in the future. Russia either destroys Ukrainian cities or colonizes them.
But for many in the West, Ukraine has no agency. They do not look on the world of independent states or self-determination. They see a world of Great Powers ruled by “Great Men” who can divide up the world like a piece of cheese. They are Great Powers because they have nuclear weapons, or a lot of territory, and almost always a dictator or would-be dictator at the helm.
Thus, all the changes that came to eastern Europe in 1989 and 1991 with the fall of Communist regimes no longer mean anything. If Ukraine falls, other states will follow because they lack the power to resist. The only power to resist lies in the NATO alliance that Trump is refusing to lead and may try to destroy.
But Russia, in truth, does not belong in this Great Power world. It is there because in 1945, it was one of two Super Powers that controlled the future of the planet. These two powers then recognized their deep differences and targeted each other, along with their allies in the 40-year long Cold War.
The Russian economy today is weak, and heavily reliant on non-renewable energy sources. The average salary in Russia is less than US$1,000 per month. Can North Americans imagine survival on $12,000 a year salaries? In fact, in Russia, there is an imbalance between life in St. Petersburg and Moscow and practically everywhere else. The two cities are protected havens. Military recruiting there is negligible. The horror stories of poverty, violence, alcoholism, and crime belong elsewhere.
And Putin remains in place, having survived a few crises, murdered a few opponents, destroyed media freedom, manipulated elections and the Constitution, extended his presidency, and created a climate of fear from the grassroots to his own Security Council.
Trump is wrong. Putin, not Zelensky, started this war. Russia invaded a sovereign state and occupied its territory. The way out of this war—likely the only way—is for Russian troops to leave Ukraine, either voluntarily or by force. But those states that support Ukraine must realize the sacrifices and commitment that are needed to end the violence in Ukraine.
It will not be through negotiation because one cannot negotiate with a dictator like Putin or his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov who has adjusted his spectrum to meet that of his master. And Ukraine has lost its chief supporter, the United States, because its president kowtows to Putin’s every whim, and the Russian leader in turn exploits such subservience by ordering ever more bloodshed and corpses at the Donetsk Front.